Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Environics: Tories Lead by 3

After two weeks without a poll, we've now had four in the past week! The most recent release is by Environics. Not only are the headline figures better for the Grits than in other recent polls, the regional breakdown is pretty good as well in seat-relevant matchups: 10-point lead in Atlantic Canada, small lead in Ontario, and "just" 11 points behind the Bloc in Québec. At the same time, this poll is by no means a disaster for the Tories, who maintain their dominance in the West and remain competitive in the East.

This poll brings the Conservatives back down to the low 130s, where they have been for most of the time since early March:

CON - 132
LIB - 82
BQ - 54
NDP - 40

The three most recent polls were in the field almost simultaneously (Ipsos 7/6-8, Angus 7/6-8, Environics 7/5-8), and show somewhat different leads for the Tories: 6, 9 and 3 respectively. All three have decent Liberal leads in the Atlantic and (of course) complete Tory dominance in Alberta. In Québec, Ipsos is the odd one out with a much higher number for the Bloc (45% vs. 37% and 39%). In Ontario, Angus stands out (7-point Tory lead vs. virtual ties), while in MB/SK, the Environics poll is the weird one (15-point Tory lead vs. 30+). Finally, in BC, Angus Reid shows the NDP virtually tied with the Tories with the Grits 15-20 behind, while the two other pollsters have the NDP virtually tied with the Liberals, both a dozen points behind the Tories.

The CBC writeup of this poll mentions that a Léger poll shows the Tories 11 points ahead. I have however not yet been able to find any other mention of the Léger survey, which leaves me wondering if there is actually a new Léger poll, or if the CBC writer just pulled up the most recent one released two months ago...

The average Conservative national lead drops to 6.7%, for now.

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