Saturday, July 10, 2010

Charest Plans to Seek a Fourth Term in Québec

That's what the Premier of La Belle Province declared to the CBC.

Can he win again? Although things look bleak for the Québec Liberals at this point, they had been similarly unpopular during their first term, only to escape with a minority government in 2007. That's due both to the Liberals recovering from their lows late in the term, and to the ADQ push, which prevented the PQ from getting the bulk of the dissatisfied vote, as they would normally have. The former can certainly happen again - we're still more than 2 years away from the next ballot - but the latter, a strong push by a third party, appears unlikely at this point.

The question, then, is: without a third party to spoil things for the PQ, can the Liberals recover enough to win a fourth time in a row? Of course, anything is possible in politics in a two-year span, but I think there is real Charest fatigue in Québec at this point. Unless the economy continues to rebound strongly in the next two years, I doubt Charest can pull it off again. And since I think the recovery will slow quite soon (though Canada will likely avoid a double dip - I don't know if the US will), I expect Québec to have its first female premier in 2013.

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