Thursday, July 22, 2010

Blog Is One Year Old! EKOS: Tories Led by 6.9 in Past Week; 5.8 in Past Two

The newest EKOS release is out. The two-week roll-up really doesn't carry any surprising numbers, except for the Tories being a bit low in BC.

The aggregate projection accordingly changed little:

CON - 132
LIB - 83
BQ - 53
NDP - 40

The Conservative average national lead falls to 6.3%, mostly on the depreciation of the second week of the previous EKOS poll that showed the Tories with a 10.5% lead.

This blog just turned 1. Thanks to all those that have been following! Here are the projection ranges for each party during the past year:

CON - 120 (Sep 4 and Feb 4) to 153 (Oct 16)
LIB - 71 (Dec 10) to 108 (Jul 30)
BQ - 46 (Jul 30-Aug 18, Sep 2, Sep 4, Feb 8) to 55 (Jun 23-Jul 10)
NDP - 31 (Jul 30, Aug 6, Oct 16) to 41 (Apr 8, Apr 27-May 1, Jun 22, Jun 23)

Basically, last summer, the Grits were relatively strong, and everyone else was relatively weak. In the fall, it was the Tories' turn to be strong at the expense of everyone else, and lately, the Bloc and the NDP have been in vogue. But we've been basically dancing around an "equilibrium" level of about 135C, 85L, 50B, 38N.

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