This month's Nanos poll shows a rather standard national Tory-Grit gap. However, many other numbers in this poll raise eyebrows: the NDP got 20.7% nationally, while the Conservative lead over the Liberals in Ontario is a huge 10.8%. The latter, if borne out, would be a disaster for the Liberals. On the other hand, Nanos has the Grits at 30.1% on the Prairies, much higher than the ~20% shown by most other pollsters.
Incorporating this poll in the aggregate projection gives:
CON - 133
LIB - 82
BQ - 53
NDP - 40
However, there is a handful of very close seats in Ontario that would turn blue with another strong Tory poll there. The average Conservative national lead is 7.0%.