Wednesday, June 23, 2010

EKOS: Grits 3.3 from Tories

For the fourth week in a row, the EKOS poll shows a shrinking Conservative lead. This time, both main parties gained support, but the Liberals a little more. In Ontario, the latter still hold a 3-point lead, in contrast to the recent Harris-Decima poll. However, EKOS agrees that the Tories have taken a slight initiative in the Atlantic. The weirdest result in this poll is a Liberal lead in BC: 2 ahead of the Conservatives, and 6.8 ahead of the NDP. This is probably a statistical blip, and in any case doesn't affect the seat projection since they Liberals were too far out to begin with.

Including this poll in my averages causes some changes: in the Atlantic, the Tories gain 2 seats from the Grits, who take one back in Manitoba. The Bloc reaches a new high with a gain at the Conservatives' expense:

CON - 133
LIB - 79
BQ - 55
NDP - 41

Compared with the 2008 election results (and counting Conservative-minded independents as Tories) gives: CON -12, LIB +2, BQ +6, NDP +4. Clearly, both main parties are far from a position where they'd want an election.

The average Conservative national lead is 5.7%.

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