Thursday, June 17, 2010

EKOS: Tory Lead at 4.2

This week's EKOS poll claims that while the Tories still have a significant lead, they only command 30.5% support in the electorate. However, although EKOS is a pollster with a high degree of consistency, their absolute numbers (as opposed to their relative numbers) are to be taken with a grain of salt: in an election, usually 1% of the vote rather than 3% would go to minor-party/independent candidates, and their polls probably overstate Green support by 3-6%. Still, even taking those factors into consideration, this poll does imply that had an election occurred last week, no party would have gotten more than 1/3 of the vote. Canadians are clearly not inspired by any of our federal politicians (given that the other explanation, that we have too many great choices, seems quite far-fetched)...

Regionally, this poll is interesting. First, it shows a 4% Liberal lead in Ontario, confirming both the EKOS poll from last week and the Ipsos poll from the weekend. In my poll average, the Grits and Tories are tied in Ontario; if future polls further corroborate the latest numbers and the Grits move to a 4-5% lead, they would pick up about 5 seats from the Tories.

Second, the Bloc busts (oy) everyone else in Québec with a 21.6% lead over their closest rivals, the Liberals. Further proof that voters are disenchanted with federal politics.

The final interesting result from the poll is the tie in BC between the Tories and the NDP. This highly contrasts with the recent Ipsos poll, which showed a 26% Conservative lead. The truth almost certainly lies somewhere in between.

Adding this poll to the mix makes the Bloc take one seat from the Liberals in Québec:

CON - 133
LIB - 81
BQ - 54
NDP - 40

However, the Grits do get closer to more pickups in Ontario. The Tory average national lead has now dropped to 6.0%.

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