Thursday, October 29, 2009

New Angus Reid Poll

Here's the most recent Angus Reid poll. It's mostly in line with recent polls, except in MB/SK where the Conservatives got a huge number, and take the last Liberal seat in Manitoba in the aggregate projection. Not a good poll for the Liberals in Atlantic Canada and Québec, and they lose a seat in each of these regions. The Grits are no longer projected to make any gains in Québec.

The aggregate projection is now:

CON - 149
LIB - 72
BQ - 52
NDP - 35

The Bloc is in a sweet spot where the Tories and Liberals almost evenly split the federalist vote. Québec poll averages are almost identical to the 2008 results, but I still have the Tories losing a couple of Quebec City seats because their numbers there, in polls with regional breakdowns, are consistently worse than what they got in 2008.

There has been a bit of a slingshot effect during this Liberal slide (and it is a Liberal slide rather than a Conservative uptick, since the BQ and NDP have gone up as well): first, Ontario moved while the rest of the country stayed put. Now, Ontario has been very stable for a while, and the rest of Canada caught up.

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