Friday, October 16, 2009

New Angus Reid and Incomplete Harris-Decima

After Strategic Counsel and EKOS, Angus Reid now also has the Tories above 40%, in majority territory. However, Harris-Decima produced a poll (only partial details available through CP) with the Conservatives still far shy of a majority.

All the polls released in the past two weeks agree on one thing: the Liberals are below 30%.

The main disagreement in the polls is about Ontario. Angus Reid, Strategic Counsel and EKOS have the Tories up 16, 16 and 13.1 respectively in their latest polls. However, Ipsos Reid and Harris-Decima both peg the Conservative lead at just 4% there. That's the difference between a majority and a minority.

Averaging up everything, I get the following projection:

CON - 153
LIB - 74
BQ - 50
NDP - 31

The Conservatives are now projected to increase or maintain their seat count in every region, except in Québec, where they're still expected to lose two marginal ridings. Also, for the first time since this website was launched, the Conservatives are projected to win more than twice as many seats as the Liberals.

The Grits may be doing a bit better than my projection suggests in Québec: we haven't had numbers from CROP or Léger in the past couple of weeks, and those generally favour the Liberals, counterbalancing the fact that many national polling firms tend to undercount them in Québec. Still, that's no more than a 5-seat difference, which would still leave the national Liberal seat count firmly in Dion territory. And seat switches between the Liberals and the Bloc obviously have no bearing on the Tory seat count, which is the relevant number nowadays.

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