Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Ipsos: Conservative Lead in Ontario down to 4

Here's the writeup by ThreeHundredEight.com. This poll is a bit odd, giving the Tories excellent results in B.C. and the Prairies, while Ontario is now again a statistical tie. This weirdness introduced some regional changes in the aggregate projection, but they mostly cancel each other out, yielding:

CON - 149
LIB - 76
BQ - 50
NDP - 33

The Liberals are now projected to do just worse than under Dion. Their expected gains in Québec have almost entirely evaporated: the poll average I'm using puts them 12% behind the Bloc, barely less than the 14% registered at the 2008 election. However, some of this may be a temporary blip due to the recent events surrounding Denis Coderre.

Putting Québec and Ontario together, the Grits are now the third party in Central Canada, well behind the Tories, but also behind the Bloc. Atlantic Canada is now playing two important roles: (a) preventing the Tories from forming a majority; (b) preventing the Bloc from approaching Official Opposition territory.

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