Tuesday, September 15, 2009

New Harris-Decima Poll

Nothing much to report on this poll: the results are almost identical to the Harris-Decima from last week. The very strong MB/SK result for the NDP, and a more decent BC number for them mean that the Dippers gain 2 seats at the expense of the Tories in the aggregate projection:

CON - 130
LIB - 98
BQ - 48
NDP - 32

The four most recent polls as measured by their midpoint date (Ipsos, Harris-Decima, EKOS and Strategic Counsel) all imply a Liberal seat total under 100 in my model, as opposed to the vast majority of polls this summer. Now that the Bloc has announced that it will support the government on Friday's confidence vote, the Liberals might be secretly hoping that either the Bloc or the NDP will vote against their non-confidence motion in 2-3 weeks. Of course, the Bloc has little to lose from an election: it can make up for most of its expected losses to the Liberals by gaining seats from the Conservatives. So all eyes will likely turn to Jack Layton as the Opposition Day approaches.

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