Thursday, September 24, 2009

EKOS Confirms Conservative Strength

After a whole week without polls, reliable EKOS comes through, and shows a 7.1% Tory lead. However, the Liberals kept their support steady from last week. Rather, it is the NDP (surprise, surprise) that has bled support, reaching 13.8%, their lowest level in a non-Ipsos poll in at least 6 months (according to ThreeHundredEight.com's list of polls).

Ontario is the big news of the poll: results in other parts of the country are actually par for the course. In Ontario, the Conservatives lead the Liberals by 6.7% according to EKOS, more than the 5.4% margin of the 2008 election. Normally, this would bring the Tories very close to a majority, but they do not have commensurate strength in Atlantic Canada or BC (not to mention QC, where the Conservatives are still weak even though this poll shows an uptick for them). As a result, even based on this poll alone, the Conservatives are no closer to a majority than they currently are.

The updated aggregate prediction shows the Liberals losing two seats to the Conservatives:

CON - 136
LIB - 91
BQ - 48
NDP - 33

I gave Outremont back to the NDP due to Denis Coderre's shenanigans in that riding, and Ignatieff's lack of leadership on this issue. While the 33-seat figure doesn't look bad at all for the NDP, many of those seats are extremely vulnerable. The province to watch for them is BC: while the NDP has been losing strength everywhere else in the country, BC has held up for them. If that changes, and Ontario keeps giving poor numbers, the much feared losing of a third of the current NDP caucus could well become reality.

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