Friday, September 4, 2009

New Angus Reid and Léger Polls

Here are the Angus poll and the Léger writeup. Almost everything in these polls are in line with recent data; the only new thing is that in the Angus Reid poll, the NDP is virtually tied with the Conservatives in BC. Accordingly, my projection just adds one NDP seat and subtracts one BC seat there:

CON - 120
LIB - 104
BQ - 46
NDP - 38

The Liberals got good numbers this week in Alberta, in both the Angus and EKOS polls. This doesn't net them any seats in my projections (and almost certainly wouldn't give them more than a couple in reality). This makes their vote less efficient, which cancels the beneficial effect of the growth of the Ontario gap (now back to about 5%). Thus, they remain 16 seats behind the Tories, even though they're only about 1% behind in the national poll average.

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