Apparently, EKOS numbers, although fairly stable, show some very interesting things that might explain last night's revelation about Layton (I'm not going to dignify that story by linking to it).
Has the NDP surged into the lead in BC? Or is it now taking more from the Tories than the Liberals in Ontario? Neither appears particularly likely, but either would seriously damage Harper's chances at a majority.
What we do know is that EKOS numbers don't point to a Conservative majority. For the rest, gratification is denied until tomorrow, when, as appears likely, a massive orgy of polls will be upon us, climaxing in a final projection and ropes of accompanying posts in the wee hours of Monday morning. Frank, you tease!
(So yeah, I will post regularly tomorrow, but wait until after midnight to make a final projection. It is possible that some pollsters release data from tomorrow's polling at night - that has been done in the past.)
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Pontiac Poll and Today's Projections
CROP has the Tories tied with the NDP in Pontiac. So the projection there remains an NDP win.
Here are the updated projections around the web. As usual, I encourage you to visit these websites, which are all linked from the sidebar. I will update this post as more updates are made.
Most Current
151 C, 93.6 N, 45.2 L, 17.6 B, 0.6 I (Calgary Grit - update)
148 C, 97 N, 47 L, 15 B, 1 I (Riding by Riding - update)
153 C, 92 N, 49 L, 14 B (Canadian Election Watch)
Including some polls from today
140 C, 96 N, 57 L, 15 B (LISPOP)
144 C, 59 N, 65 L, 40 B (ThreeHundredEight.com)
Average of 5 projections: 147 C, 88 N, 52 L, 20 B
(Without ThreeHundredEight.com: 148 C, 95 N, 50 L, 15 B)
Including polls from yesterday
149 C, 79 N, 55 L, 24 B, 1 I (democraticSPACE)
Including polls from two days ago
142 C, 88 N, 64 L, 14 B (Too Close to Call)
Including polls from three days ago
143 C, 73 N, 69 L, 22 B, 1 I (The Mace)
Average of 8 projections: 146 C, 85 N, 56 L, 20 B
(Without ThreeHundredEight.com: 147 C, 88 N, 55 L, 17 B, 1 I)
Ranges excluding highest and lowest:
CON: 142-151
NDP: 73-96
LIB: 47-65
BQ: 14-24
Here are the updated projections around the web. As usual, I encourage you to visit these websites, which are all linked from the sidebar. I will update this post as more updates are made.
Most Current
151 C, 93.6 N, 45.2 L, 17.6 B, 0.6 I (Calgary Grit - update)
148 C, 97 N, 47 L, 15 B, 1 I (Riding by Riding - update)
153 C, 92 N, 49 L, 14 B (Canadian Election Watch)
Including some polls from today
140 C, 96 N, 57 L, 15 B (LISPOP)
144 C, 59 N, 65 L, 40 B (ThreeHundredEight.com)
Average of 5 projections: 147 C, 88 N, 52 L, 20 B
(Without ThreeHundredEight.com: 148 C, 95 N, 50 L, 15 B)
Including polls from yesterday
149 C, 79 N, 55 L, 24 B, 1 I (democraticSPACE)
Including polls from two days ago
142 C, 88 N, 64 L, 14 B (Too Close to Call)
Including polls from three days ago
143 C, 73 N, 69 L, 22 B, 1 I (The Mace)
Average of 8 projections: 146 C, 85 N, 56 L, 20 B
(Without ThreeHundredEight.com: 147 C, 88 N, 55 L, 17 B, 1 I)
Ranges excluding highest and lowest:
CON: 142-151
NDP: 73-96
LIB: 47-65
BQ: 14-24
Léger: Tories by 5
We have another piece of evidence, by Léger Marketing, that the Conservative lead is around 5%. My raw polling average has it at 5.5%, but after adjusting for a likely Tory ballot box bump, it is 8.0%.
This poll has the Tories leading the Liberals by 11% in Ontario, which is consistent with the polling average. That's good news since Léger is usually pretty middle-of-the-road. The NDP is 8% behind the Conservatives there.
In Québec, this survey has the Bloc a little higher than others. Still, that's just 27%, 13% behind the NDP. In the Atlantic, it's a tight three-way race, though the Liberals trail the others slightly. Out West, there's nothing surprising.
We keep hearing about an NDP surge in BC. Léger still has them 10% behind the Conservatives, and the pre-adjustment polling average, 9%. While that's less than the 18% gap recorded in 2008, it's unlikely to cost the Tories more than 2-3 seats.
In the projection, the Bloc gets an NDP seat in Québec, the NDP gets a Tory seat in Ontario, and the Tories get a Grit seat in PEI, which gives:
CON - 153
NDP - 92
LIB - 49
BQ - 14
Update: Interestingly, according to this poll, still just 8% of Canadians think the next government will be led by Layton, while 66% think Harper will remain PM. This doesn't mean Canadians prefer Harper - he trails Layton by 4%, 30 to 34, on the best PM question.
This poll has the Tories leading the Liberals by 11% in Ontario, which is consistent with the polling average. That's good news since Léger is usually pretty middle-of-the-road. The NDP is 8% behind the Conservatives there.
In Québec, this survey has the Bloc a little higher than others. Still, that's just 27%, 13% behind the NDP. In the Atlantic, it's a tight three-way race, though the Liberals trail the others slightly. Out West, there's nothing surprising.
We keep hearing about an NDP surge in BC. Léger still has them 10% behind the Conservatives, and the pre-adjustment polling average, 9%. While that's less than the 18% gap recorded in 2008, it's unlikely to cost the Tories more than 2-3 seats.
In the projection, the Bloc gets an NDP seat in Québec, the NDP gets a Tory seat in Ontario, and the Tories get a Grit seat in PEI, which gives:
CON - 153
NDP - 92
LIB - 49
BQ - 14
Update: Interestingly, according to this poll, still just 8% of Canadians think the next government will be led by Layton, while 66% think Harper will remain PM. This doesn't mean Canadians prefer Harper - he trails Layton by 4%, 30 to 34, on the best PM question.
Angus Reid: Tories by 4; Nanos: Tories by 8.4
Today's Angus Reid and Nanos polls show stability in the national Tory-NDP gap (though Angus Reid has the Grits dropping to 19%), but have very different implications due to different regional splits.
Ontario: Angus Reid has the Tory-Liberal gap widening from 7% to 15%, while Nanos has it shrinking from 6.5% to 3.6%. The former gives Harper a good shot at a majority, while the latter puts him nowhere close.
Atlantic Canada: Both polls agree that the Liberals and Conservatives are roughly tied. However, Nanos puts the NDP about 12% behind them, while Angus Reid has the Dippers roughly 20% ahead...
Québec: Nanos suggests that the NDP rise has stopped, and shows a small Liberal rebound. Angus Reid has the Grits flat and the Dippers still going up, now at 45%.
British Columbia: Angus Reid has the NDP up to a statistical tie with the Tories, while Nanos shows no such bump.
Overall, the Liberals plunge in my Ontario polling average, giving 3 seats to the Tories. The NDP picks up 4 seats in Québec, 3 from the Bloc and one from André Arthur. The Dippers also gain a seat from each of the other two parties in NS.
CON - 153
NDP - 92
LIB - 50
BQ - 13
The average Conservative national lead is 8.1%.
Ontario: Angus Reid has the Tory-Liberal gap widening from 7% to 15%, while Nanos has it shrinking from 6.5% to 3.6%. The former gives Harper a good shot at a majority, while the latter puts him nowhere close.
Atlantic Canada: Both polls agree that the Liberals and Conservatives are roughly tied. However, Nanos puts the NDP about 12% behind them, while Angus Reid has the Dippers roughly 20% ahead...
Québec: Nanos suggests that the NDP rise has stopped, and shows a small Liberal rebound. Angus Reid has the Grits flat and the Dippers still going up, now at 45%.
British Columbia: Angus Reid has the NDP up to a statistical tie with the Tories, while Nanos shows no such bump.
Overall, the Liberals plunge in my Ontario polling average, giving 3 seats to the Tories. The NDP picks up 4 seats in Québec, 3 from the Bloc and one from André Arthur. The Dippers also gain a seat from each of the other two parties in NS.
CON - 153
NDP - 92
LIB - 50
BQ - 13
The average Conservative national lead is 8.1%.
Friday, April 29, 2011
Conservative Majority Out of Reach? NOT SO FAST!
The Toronto Star reported this morning that the Conservatives think it is "almost impossible" for them to win a majority. Specifically, they say they need to win 74 Ontario seats in order to get to 155. Are these sources telling the truth, that they're at just 81 outside Ontario?
Here is the number of ex-Ontario seats projected for the Conservatives by each of the 8 websites that use a polling average:
Calgary Grit: 98 (from Monday)*
ThreeHundredEight.com: 92
LISPOP: 91
Canadian Election Watch: 91
Too Close to Call: 87
The Mace: 87
democraticSPACE: 85
Riding by Riding: 85 (from earlier today)*
*The latest projection's breakdown is not available.
Is the Conservatives' internal polling having them a lot lower than public polls? Do they use a seat model that's significantly less generous to them than all the ones above?
Unlikely. They are probably playing the media, perhaps hoping that fewer left-wingers in the GTA vote if they don't think a Tory majority is possible. Update: Or maybe they're trying to lower expectations, so that they can have more legitimacy if they "unexpectedly" come very close to 155.
To be fair, just 81 seats outside Ontario isn't insanely low, but it's just not what you'd expect, on average, based on current Conservative numbers.
Here is the number of ex-Ontario seats projected for the Conservatives by each of the 8 websites that use a polling average:
Calgary Grit: 98 (from Monday)*
ThreeHundredEight.com: 92
LISPOP: 91
Canadian Election Watch: 91
Too Close to Call: 87
The Mace: 87
democraticSPACE: 85
Riding by Riding: 85 (from earlier today)*
*The latest projection's breakdown is not available.
Is the Conservatives' internal polling having them a lot lower than public polls? Do they use a seat model that's significantly less generous to them than all the ones above?
Unlikely. They are probably playing the media, perhaps hoping that fewer left-wingers in the GTA vote if they don't think a Tory majority is possible. Update: Or maybe they're trying to lower expectations, so that they can have more legitimacy if they "unexpectedly" come very close to 155.
To be fair, just 81 seats outside Ontario isn't insanely low, but it's just not what you'd expect, on average, based on current Conservative numbers.
Updated Trend Graph
Here are the trends updated with today's points.Two things to note: first, the Liberals have stabilized around the mid-50s. The key number for them is their Ontario vote share, and most recent polls put them at around 28%, except for Ipsos' 21%.
Second, accounting for methodological change (that's the discontinuity on the graph), the Tories are at their lowest point of the campaign. They are still very close to a majority, however, so unless things change drastically in the next two days, there will be a lot of suspense on election night. Don't believe the media saying there's virtually no chance of a Tory majority.
Today's Projection Averages
As usual, I encourage you to visit these websites, which are all linked from the sidebar.
Most Current
149 C, 79 N, 55 L, 24 B, 1 I (democraticSPACE - update)
143 C, 94 N, 52 L, 18 B, 1 I (Riding by Riding)
151 C, 86 N, 54 L, 16 B, 1 I (Canadian Election Watch)
Average: 148 C, 86 N, 54 L, 19 B, 1 I
Including some polls from today
149 C, 78 N, 57 L, 23 B, 1 I (Calgary Grit)
144 C, 53 N, 70 L, 41 B (ThreeHundredEight.com)
Average of 5 projections: 147 C, 78 N, 58 L, 24 B, 1 I
Including yesterday's polls
142 C, 88 N, 64 L, 14 B (Too Close to Call)
Average of 6 projections: 146 C, 80 N, 59 L, 23 B, 1 I
Including polls from two days ago
147 C, 69 N, 60 L, 32 B (LISPOP)
143 C, 73 N, 69 L, 22 B, 1 I (The Mace)
Average of 8 projections: 146 C, 77 N, 60 L, 24 B, 1 I
(Without ThreeHundredEight.com: 146 C, 81 N, 59 L, 21 B, 1 I)
Ranges excluding highest and lowest:
CON: 143-149
NDP: 69-88
LIB: 54-69
BQ: 16-32
Most Current
149 C, 79 N, 55 L, 24 B, 1 I (democraticSPACE - update)
143 C, 94 N, 52 L, 18 B, 1 I (Riding by Riding)
151 C, 86 N, 54 L, 16 B, 1 I (Canadian Election Watch)
Average: 148 C, 86 N, 54 L, 19 B, 1 I
Including some polls from today
149 C, 78 N, 57 L, 23 B, 1 I (Calgary Grit)
144 C, 53 N, 70 L, 41 B (ThreeHundredEight.com)
Average of 5 projections: 147 C, 78 N, 58 L, 24 B, 1 I
Including yesterday's polls
142 C, 88 N, 64 L, 14 B (Too Close to Call)
Average of 6 projections: 146 C, 80 N, 59 L, 23 B, 1 I
Including polls from two days ago
147 C, 69 N, 60 L, 32 B (LISPOP)
143 C, 73 N, 69 L, 22 B, 1 I (The Mace)
Average of 8 projections: 146 C, 77 N, 60 L, 24 B, 1 I
(Without ThreeHundredEight.com: 146 C, 81 N, 59 L, 21 B, 1 I)
Ranges excluding highest and lowest:
CON: 143-149
NDP: 69-88
LIB: 54-69
BQ: 16-32
Ipsos: Tories by 5, Grits at 18%; Eight Riding Polls
Ipsos Reid confirms (updated link) the 5% Tory lead over the NDP that many others have observed. The Liberals are at a historic low, but Ipsos has consistently shown the Grits lower and the Tories higher than other pollsters.
In Ontario, the NDP has vaulted into second place at 34%, just 6% behind the Conservatives. The Liberals languish at 21%. Although the NDP is close to the Conservatives in the popular vote, it would likely only win around 26 seats, leaving 69 for the Conservatives, and just 11 for the Liberals. The NDP needs to win the Ontario popular vote handsomely before making significant inroads.
The NDP leads in Atlantic Canada, 10% in front of the Tories and 19% ahead of the Grits, who would fall out of contention in the last region where they have a shot at the lead. The Tories polled at 55% in SK/MN, 23% ahead of the NDP, and at a whopping 74% in Alberta.
The Québec numbers are pretty run-of-the-mill: NDP at 42%, 16 in front of the Bloc, with the Grits and Tories well back around 15%. BC numbers have the Tories and Grits slightly stronger than the polling average, so the Dippers are just 3% ahead of the Liberals and 13% from the Conservatives.
For all these funny numbers, this poll only caused a one-seat change in the projection: the NDP takes an Ontarian seat from the Liberals. Based on this poll alone, however, I have the Tories winning a bare majority: 157 C, 108 N, 31 L, 12 B.
Next, ProjectDemocracy has released eight riding polls conducted by Oracle. Two of these are in the same ridings as CROP polled, and unfortunately, the results conflict. In Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier, while CROP showed a tight three-way race, this one has André Arthur leading the NDP candidate by 6%, both well ahead of the Bloc. In Charlesbourgh--Haute-Saint-Charles, where CROP showed an NDP-Tory race, Oracle says it's an NDP-Bloc race.
Two more of these polls are in Québec: Lévis--Bellechasse, where the Conservatives have a whopping lead (this conflicts in a major way with an earlier poll which had the NDP much closer in an early stage of its surge), and Pontiac, where the NDP leads by 6%.
The Tories lead in the four other ridings polled: Saskatoon--Humboldt, Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River, Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca and Nunavut. Harper's efforts in the North have really helped Leona Aglukkaq, who polled at over 70%. The only competitive riding is Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca, where the Tories lead the NDP by 5.8%, almost exactly as the model expects.
All these riding polls result in one change: André Arthur retakes his seat by a fraction of a point. This one could bounce back and forth over the weekend... The new projection is thus:
CON - 151
NDP - 86
LIB - 54
BQ - 16
IND - 1
The average Conservative national lead is 8.8%.
In Ontario, the NDP has vaulted into second place at 34%, just 6% behind the Conservatives. The Liberals languish at 21%. Although the NDP is close to the Conservatives in the popular vote, it would likely only win around 26 seats, leaving 69 for the Conservatives, and just 11 for the Liberals. The NDP needs to win the Ontario popular vote handsomely before making significant inroads.
The NDP leads in Atlantic Canada, 10% in front of the Tories and 19% ahead of the Grits, who would fall out of contention in the last region where they have a shot at the lead. The Tories polled at 55% in SK/MN, 23% ahead of the NDP, and at a whopping 74% in Alberta.
The Québec numbers are pretty run-of-the-mill: NDP at 42%, 16 in front of the Bloc, with the Grits and Tories well back around 15%. BC numbers have the Tories and Grits slightly stronger than the polling average, so the Dippers are just 3% ahead of the Liberals and 13% from the Conservatives.
For all these funny numbers, this poll only caused a one-seat change in the projection: the NDP takes an Ontarian seat from the Liberals. Based on this poll alone, however, I have the Tories winning a bare majority: 157 C, 108 N, 31 L, 12 B.
Next, ProjectDemocracy has released eight riding polls conducted by Oracle. Two of these are in the same ridings as CROP polled, and unfortunately, the results conflict. In Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier, while CROP showed a tight three-way race, this one has André Arthur leading the NDP candidate by 6%, both well ahead of the Bloc. In Charlesbourgh--Haute-Saint-Charles, where CROP showed an NDP-Tory race, Oracle says it's an NDP-Bloc race.
Two more of these polls are in Québec: Lévis--Bellechasse, where the Conservatives have a whopping lead (this conflicts in a major way with an earlier poll which had the NDP much closer in an early stage of its surge), and Pontiac, where the NDP leads by 6%.
The Tories lead in the four other ridings polled: Saskatoon--Humboldt, Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River, Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca and Nunavut. Harper's efforts in the North have really helped Leona Aglukkaq, who polled at over 70%. The only competitive riding is Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca, where the Tories lead the NDP by 5.8%, almost exactly as the model expects.
All these riding polls result in one change: André Arthur retakes his seat by a fraction of a point. This one could bounce back and forth over the weekend... The new projection is thus:
CON - 151
NDP - 86
LIB - 54
BQ - 16
IND - 1
The average Conservative national lead is 8.8%.
Why Andrew Coyne is wrong, and the NDP will win at least 30 seats in Québec
Plenty of commentators, like Andrew Coyne (whose most recent article is an absolute must), are still skeptical about the NDP's ability to convert its polling numbers into a seat landslide in Québec. (See here and here.) Here are two common explanations for their skepticism, and why I think they're wrong.
Update, 6:45pm: Andrew has changed his mind from last night, and now agrees that the NDP will win over 30 seats in Québec. However, some still believe that they will only get 5 to 7 (see here and here).
1. The Bloc vote will turn out more than the NDP's.
Contrary to what many have asserted, the sovereignists are notoriously bad at turning out their vote. In almost every provincial and federal election, there is a prime à l'urne (ballot box bounce) for the federalist party/parties. The 2008 provincial election, when the PQ did unexpectedly well, was an exception and probably due to Quebecers being unenthusiastic about the incumbent government (Charest's Liberals). Such an anti-incumbency effect would clearly not hurt the NDP. While the NDP may not get a bounce because of its inferior organization, it is unlikely to be much worse than the Bloc at turnout.
2. The Bloc vote is efficiently distributed.
This is patently false. The Bloc vote was efficiently distributed in 2008 because it is quite uniform across French-speaking regions of Québec. This allowed it to win a lot of ridings by moderate margins, instead of wasting tons of votes on ultra-safe strongholds. This efficiency is predicated on the Bloc winning the Francophone vote. If the Bloc were tied with the NDP province-wide, it would still win Francophones, and Duceppe would trounce Layton seat-wise.
However, with the NDP 13% ahead of the Bloc, the Dippers are clearly also in the lead among Francophones. Both parties have quite uniformly spread votes. This means that the Bloc will lose dozens of races by 10% or less. Because the Bloc is no longer first, the same feature that made its vote very efficient in the past now makes it inefficient.
Now, obviously, there may be pockets of the province where the Bloc retreats less than elsewhere, which would make its vote less uniform and help it survive in some areas. The projection actually takes this into account through regional adjustments based on riding polls: if I applied a straight uniform swing without regional adjustments, the Bloc would be down to 9 seats.
Bottom line: If the election were yesterday, I'm confident the NDP would have won, at a bare minimum, a majority of Québec seats. Taking into account a potential recoil over the weekend, maybe that lower bound is around 30 seats for Election Day. However, while I think the NDP has probably stopped going up in Québec, I don't think that a voter recoil is much more likely than a further Bloc collapse. The best bet is that the Dippers win a majority of Québec seats, and that the Bloc loses at least half its caucus. I wouldn't even be surprised if the Bloc falls below 12 and loses official party status, though the odds of that are currently under half.
Update, 6:45pm: Andrew has changed his mind from last night, and now agrees that the NDP will win over 30 seats in Québec. However, some still believe that they will only get 5 to 7 (see here and here).
1. The Bloc vote will turn out more than the NDP's.
Contrary to what many have asserted, the sovereignists are notoriously bad at turning out their vote. In almost every provincial and federal election, there is a prime à l'urne (ballot box bounce) for the federalist party/parties. The 2008 provincial election, when the PQ did unexpectedly well, was an exception and probably due to Quebecers being unenthusiastic about the incumbent government (Charest's Liberals). Such an anti-incumbency effect would clearly not hurt the NDP. While the NDP may not get a bounce because of its inferior organization, it is unlikely to be much worse than the Bloc at turnout.
2. The Bloc vote is efficiently distributed.
This is patently false. The Bloc vote was efficiently distributed in 2008 because it is quite uniform across French-speaking regions of Québec. This allowed it to win a lot of ridings by moderate margins, instead of wasting tons of votes on ultra-safe strongholds. This efficiency is predicated on the Bloc winning the Francophone vote. If the Bloc were tied with the NDP province-wide, it would still win Francophones, and Duceppe would trounce Layton seat-wise.
However, with the NDP 13% ahead of the Bloc, the Dippers are clearly also in the lead among Francophones. Both parties have quite uniformly spread votes. This means that the Bloc will lose dozens of races by 10% or less. Because the Bloc is no longer first, the same feature that made its vote very efficient in the past now makes it inefficient.
Now, obviously, there may be pockets of the province where the Bloc retreats less than elsewhere, which would make its vote less uniform and help it survive in some areas. The projection actually takes this into account through regional adjustments based on riding polls: if I applied a straight uniform swing without regional adjustments, the Bloc would be down to 9 seats.
Bottom line: If the election were yesterday, I'm confident the NDP would have won, at a bare minimum, a majority of Québec seats. Taking into account a potential recoil over the weekend, maybe that lower bound is around 30 seats for Election Day. However, while I think the NDP has probably stopped going up in Québec, I don't think that a voter recoil is much more likely than a further Bloc collapse. The best bet is that the Dippers win a majority of Québec seats, and that the Bloc loses at least half its caucus. I wouldn't even be surprised if the Bloc falls below 12 and loses official party status, though the odds of that are currently under half.
Riding Poll: Bloc Holds on by 7 in Berthier--Maskinongé
Cible Recherche has conducted a riding poll in Berthier--Maskinongé. This staunchly pro-Bloc riding was projected to be a tough fight, with a 3% NDP edge. This survey suggests that the Bloc vote may be holding up better in this region than elsewhere.
The Lanaudière region and nearby areas are the most sovereignist places in Southern Québec. Most of the Bloc's close races are there, as it is literally fighting for its survival. Along with far Eastern Québec, this is where the Bloc will make a last stand. Thus, this riding survey is very significant, and suggests that the Bloc might have a better chance at staying an official party than provincial polls imply.
As a result of this riding poll, I will make an adjustment not just for Berthier--Maskinongé, but also for other ridings on the North Shore of Montréal. As a result, the Bloc also retakes Laurentides--Labelle and La Rivière-du-Nord, both of which were projected NDP by under 2%.
CON - 151
NDP - 86
LIB - 55
BQ - 16
Update: Bernard von Schulmann has alerted me to a Yukon riding poll by DataPath. The Liberal incumbent is comfortably in the lead, as expected.
Update 2: Skoblin points out that Berthier--Maskinongé is the riding where the NDP candidate can barely speak French. I had missed that! Obviously, that means that this poll may not be representative for what's happening in the region. However, the adjustment I made for nearby ridings is a lot smaller than the one applied to Berthier--Maskinongé. I will keep it since it also serves as a correction for the fact that the NDP was winning lots of close races, but losing very few when I had the Bloc at 13.
The Lanaudière region and nearby areas are the most sovereignist places in Southern Québec. Most of the Bloc's close races are there, as it is literally fighting for its survival. Along with far Eastern Québec, this is where the Bloc will make a last stand. Thus, this riding survey is very significant, and suggests that the Bloc might have a better chance at staying an official party than provincial polls imply.
As a result of this riding poll, I will make an adjustment not just for Berthier--Maskinongé, but also for other ridings on the North Shore of Montréal. As a result, the Bloc also retakes Laurentides--Labelle and La Rivière-du-Nord, both of which were projected NDP by under 2%.
CON - 151
NDP - 86
LIB - 55
BQ - 16
Update: Bernard von Schulmann has alerted me to a Yukon riding poll by DataPath. The Liberal incumbent is comfortably in the lead, as expected.
Update 2: Skoblin points out that Berthier--Maskinongé is the riding where the NDP candidate can barely speak French. I had missed that! Obviously, that means that this poll may not be representative for what's happening in the region. However, the adjustment I made for nearby ridings is a lot smaller than the one applied to Berthier--Maskinongé. I will keep it since it also serves as a correction for the fact that the NDP was winning lots of close races, but losing very few when I had the Bloc at 13.
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