Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Ipsos Reid: Tories Lead by 3; Harris-Decima: Tories Lead by 6 has reported on the latest Ipsos Reid poll, while Harris-Decima has its own new release. The two polls are not surprising and indeed virtually identical in Québec and Ontario: the Conservatives still lead by 1 in Ontario, while the Liberals seem to be on a slight up trend in Québec. Considering small sample sizes, Alberta and Atlantic results are also unsurprising. In Manitoba/Saskatchewan and BC however, the Liberals show unexpected strength in the Ipsos Reid poll (just 5 behind the Tories in both cases, and 13 ahead of the NDP in BC), while nothing of the sort appears in the Harris-Decima survey.

Both polls are very bad for the NDP: their regional numbers go from weak in Ontario (16%) and Québec (12%) to very weak in the Atlantic (20-21%) and Alberta (8-9%) to disastrous in MB/SK (14%) and BC (20%) - in the latter, they trail the Tories by 17-18%.

The Bloc and the NDP weaken to the profit of the Liberals:

CON - 131
LIB - 87
BQ - 52
NDP - 38

Still, the smaller parties are in a strong position. The Liberals are approaching respectability territory, though their inability to get ahead in Ontario means they're not competitive yet with the Tories.

The Tory average national lead is down to 4.6%.

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