Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, February 11, 2010

EKOS: Tories Regain 2-Point Lead

The latest EKOS poll shows the Grits back under 30%, and trailing by 2. Compared to last week, the Liberals lost 3 points, while the Tories remained flat at 31% - nothing to rejoice about for either party. In fact, the regional breakdown is further cause for gloom for both: outside of MB/SK/AB, the Grits lost about 4 points everywhere, while the Tories lost 1-2 points in Ontario and Québec, and stayed at a dismal 30.3% in BC.

Is all this great news for the other parties? Yes for the Bloc, up a whopping 6.8% from last week. For the NDP, the top line figure isn't that good (flat - no noticeable bump from Jack Layton's cancer announcement), but the regional breakdown is: decent gains in Ontario and BC, exactly their two crucial provinces.

The two smaller parties thus regain the ground they lost in the last update, while the Liberals drop and the Tories stay flat:

CON - 124
LIB - 99
BQ - 48
NDP - 37

This poll is reassuring in a sense: EKOS had been a bit of an outlier lately, being the only pollster showing the Grits in front, even though historically, they've been a middle-of-the-road one. In the latest poll, however, the 2-point Tory lead puts EKOS back almost perfectly in line with the recent poll average.

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