The latest EKOS poll has the Tories ahead by just 5.1%, compared to 12.5% in the previous poll. This change is statistically significant, though it would still be prudent to wait for some confirmation before stating that the Conservative lead has been drastically cut. Importantly, this poll shows the two major parties even again in Ontario.
The model is not yet too impressed with this apparent shift, removing just 2 seats from the Tories:
CON - 147
LIB - 75
BQ - 53
NDP - 33
However, the average Tory national lead does shrink noticeably, and is now 10.1%.