Friday, February 25, 2011

Abacus: Tories Lead by 15

The latest Abacus poll contradicts the EKOS poll, and suggested that the Tories have in fact maintained their double-digit lead over the Liberals, or have actually regained it after losing it momentarily. (Abacus conducted its polling on 2/23, while EKOS polled on 2/10-22.) The Tory-Grit gaps in these two polls, 5.1% and 15%, are statistically different from each other, so now we really need another pollster to weigh in.

The biggest disagreement between the two polls is in Ontario, where Abacus has the Tories leading by 10%, while EKOS had the Grits marginally ahead. (Well, strictly speaking, the difference in Alberta was even larger, but who cares.) Abacus also showed strong NDP numbers, but this is in line with its previous polls. Typically, internet pollsters like Abacus and Angus Reid appear to show higher NDP numbers than phone pollsters - perhaps some less lazy person could crunch the numbers on this.

The seat projection remains almost unchanged - the Tories need another push in Ontario to get into majority territory:

CON - 146
LIB - 75
BQ - 53
NDP - 34

The weighted average Tory lead is 10.9%.

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