Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Harris-Decima: Conservatives Ahead by 5

The latest Harris-Decima poll confirms that the Tories have opened up a lead in late October. The big difference from the EKOS and Angus Reid polls from the same period, however, is that no such lead has appeared in Ontario: indeed, Harris-Decima has the Liberals ahead by 1% there. Rather, this poll has the Tories leading by 14% in Atlantic Canada; given that no poll has had the Tories up by more than 5% there (and that many have shown a large Liberal lead), this is probably just due to the small sample issue.

The other interesting thing is that this is the 5th consecutive poll showing the Tories at 33% or less in BC, and the NDP at 26% or more there. Gains in BC could well offset expected losses in Ontario for the NDP if this trend continues.

The new seat projection shows little change, although the Liberals keep slowly falling:

CON - 135
LIB - 84
BQ - 52
NDP - 37

The average Tory national lead is at 6.1%.

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