Thursday, November 25, 2010

EKOS: Tories Led by 6.2 in the Past Week, 3.7 in the Previous One

After two weeks of no new national poll, the regular one from EKOS is out. The past two weeks of EKOS polling suggest that the Tories now lead in Atlantic Canada. In Québec, there has been no real movement, though the NDP posted stronger numbers than in past EKOS polls, and are now close to a second seat in my projection (though that's actually mainly due to the Léger poll described below). Ontario is still a Liberal-Conservative tie. The most noteworthy numbers of this poll are in BC, where after a few good polls, the Liberals are back to third place status.

Also adding into the mix this Léger Québec poll released last week, which had a good Tory number and a whopping NDP number, I get the following aggregate projection:

CON - 134
LIB - 83
BQ - 51
NDP - 40

The Liberals were hurt by the EKOS numbers in Atlantic Canada and BC.

In terms of the popular vote, the Tory lead is now pegged at 6.3%. The increase is mostly due to the reduced weight put on the previous EKOS poll, which was a bit of an outlier in showing an almost tied race.

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