Tuesday, November 6, 2012

2012 US Senate Elections

For posts on the Presidential election, click here (state by state) and here (popular vote).


Note: Maine is safe for independent Angus King; it is coloured in light blue since he is likely to caucus with the Democrats.

Some states are less solid than the others. Of the "lean Democrat" states, I'm least confident about MA, IN and VA. Of the "lean Republican" states, ND and NV have the best chance of causing a surprise.

I think the Democrat is marginally ahead in both tossups, MT and WI. However, the advantage is so slight that they might have a better chance of splitting. (For example, if the Democrat has a 60% of winning in each, and the two races are independent, then the Democrats have a 36% of winning both, and the states have a 48% chance of splitting.) For this reason, I view the most likely outcome as the Democrats winning all states coloured in blue and both tossups, but the most likely seat count as 53-47.

Later today: a guide to election night

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