Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, October 14, 2010

Nanos: Tories Lead by 4.2; EKOS: Tories Led by 4.2 and 6.6 in Past Two Weeks

After two weeks of poll drought, two polls are out today! First, the Nanos poll, while showing unsurprising national numbers (except maybe the low 4.9% for the Greens), has interesting regional figures: a dead heat in Atlantic Canada (good for Tories), a strong 27.7% for the Liberals in Québec, a 6-point Tory lead and an NDP rebound in Ontario (very bad for Grits), and a Liberal/Conservative dead heat in BC, with the NDP close behind. Generally speaking, this is a bad poll for the Liberals, as the silver linings in Québec and BC are not significant enough to compensate for the bad news in Ontario.

The EKOS poll, as usual, covers two weeks. The first week mostly overlaps with the Nanos polling period, and the Conservative-Liberal national gap is identical to the one shown by Nanos; EKOS shows a bigger Tory lead in the most recent week. Regional figures in Ontario and BC are very different from Nanos' numbers, however: EKOS still shows a dead heat in Ontario, while it has the Liberals third in both weeks in BC. EKOS also has much lower figures in Québec for both the Grits and the Tories (to the benefit of the Greens) than Nanos does.

Adding these polls in (and using slightly less aggressive depreciation - somewhere between the usual formula and the summer formula - due to the recent lack of polls) gives:

CON - 136
BQ -

This is the sixth projection in a row showing a seat gain for the Conservatives. The Tory average national lead jumps to 5.8%.

No comments: