Saturday, November 14, 2009

November Nanos

The November Nanos is out, and finally gives us some confirmation of what EKOS has been observing for the past few weeks: the Tories are now back to where they were in 2008. This comes after a few weeks of being slightly above that level, and flirting with (though not quite getting to, at least according to my projections) a majority.

As usual, relative to EKOS, Nanos' figures scale up the support of all parties at the expense of the Greens, with an extra little bump for the Liberals. It's interesting to note that while this week's EKOS and Nanos both show the Bloc at 35.6%, EKOS has it at 8.8% nationally, while Nanos shows 9.3%. The latter probably takes into account that Québec turnout is typically slightly higher than national turnout at general elections.

Very little change in the aggregate projection, though we now get nice round numbers for the top three parties:

CON - 145
LIB - 75
BQ - 50
NDP - 38

The CPC's rise in Atlantic Canada lagged its rise in Ontario by a few weeks. Now that the Tory wave seems to be subsiding in Ontario (I believe they got as high as 58 seats at one point), one can ask whether the same will occur in Atlantic Canada in the coming weeks.

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