Thursday, July 30, 2009

Weekly EKOS

Latest projection:
CON - 124
LIB - 106
BQ - 46
NDP - 32

Not much change for any of the parties. In this new poll, the Grits have taken a 34.1-32.5 (statistically insignificant) lead in the national popular vote. However, even looking at this poll alone, my seat projection gives the Tories a marginal lead. The Liberals have suspiciously good numbers on the Prairies in this poll, but these don't really help seat-wise. The Grit Ontario lead stays at 4%, which is very low considering their national lead.

This is the 7th EKOS poll in a row where the difference between the top two parties is statistically insignificant (keeping in mind that the uncertainty is higher when evaluating the difference between two parties than evaluating a single party's support).

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