Sunday, January 30, 2011

EKOS and Abacus Confirm 7-8 Point Tory Lead

Two national polls were released this week: EKOS and Abacus. The results were strikingly consistent with other December and January polls in all regions, so there's basically nothing to be said. It seems that Canadians are basically in a wait-and-see mode - specifically, wait for an election, see what different parties are offering, and only then change their allegiance if necessary.

The seat projection changed little:

CON - 137
LIB - 86
BQ - 52
NDP - 33

The average Tory-Grit gap is unchanged at 7.7%.

Saturday, January 22, 2011

First Polls of 2011

Note to Readers, April 23, 2011: Please go to the front page of the blog for the most recent updates. This post is 3 months old, and there have been 83 posts since!

My life has been quite hectic since the New Year, and it will remain this way for the rest of the month. Nevertheless, I found some time at the airport today to update my projection based on the most recent Angus Reid, EKOS, Harris-Decima and Léger polls.

The new polls' weight in this projection is about 80%, with the remainder coming from December surveys. The Liberals benefit in the seat count because they have reduced their deficit in Ontario and extended their lead in the Atlantic:

CON - 137
LIB - 85
BQ - 52
NDP - 34

However, the national popular vote has been essentially frozen in place: the Tories' weighted average lead is 7.7%.