tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post6940906423221563664..comments2023-06-03T03:51:36.883-07:00Comments on Canadian Election Watch: Understanding Projections II: UncertaintyElection Watcherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10276655533153494264noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-58031894523736081402015-10-13T19:13:37.141-07:002015-10-13T19:13:37.141-07:00@Habs24cups: Go read its methodology, now that the...@Habs24cups: Go read its methodology, now that the hockey game is over!Election Watcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10276655533153494264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-14079858605636988062015-10-13T18:39:03.037-07:002015-10-13T18:39:03.037-07:00How does 308 get their riding projection numbers?How does 308 get their riding projection numbers?Habs24cupshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18178350309726890945noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-75607316509031591852015-10-13T15:41:03.998-07:002015-10-13T15:41:03.998-07:00The whole min/low/high/max thing at ThreeHundredEi...The whole min/low/high/max thing at ThreeHundredEight is incredibly clumsy. They mix up a whole bunch of considerations, and you really have to read the methodology carefully to have any clue what they mean. And once you've done that, you realize that the explanation is so complicated that it's really hard to remember.<br /><br />There's no bias going on there. Just a bunch of really poorly constructed indicators. Simulations, such as used by the other sites, are definitely the way to go - I'm just too lazy to do them.Election Watcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10276655533153494264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-22469299596061181592015-10-13T11:45:26.593-07:002015-10-13T11:45:26.593-07:00Posted this on the other blog entry, but figured i...Posted this on the other blog entry, but figured its more relevant here:<br />========================================================================<br /><br />On 308.com's CBC anaylsis, in addition to the debateable choice (it appears biased) poll weighting that commentor Jeremy Akerman already mentioned on another of your blog posts, I also note the following:<br /><br />There is a "simplistically" labelled, low, middle, avg, high distribution for the seat projections. The conservatives' "likely" bubble has always included the low, middle, and avg points, with the "high" point projected as an extreme outlier.<br /><br />The NDP and Liberals, (its shifted over time), have their "low" points projected as extreme outliers, but their high points are WITHIN (or right beside) the shaded "likely" outcome window. By what justification does he skew these "likely outcome" seat projection windows to push the conservatives "high" point to be an outlier, but having left leaning parties only have their "low" points as extreme outliers.... Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-36727969017853604842015-10-13T09:19:22.178-07:002015-10-13T09:19:22.178-07:00The comment is about the estimation of the project...The comment is about the estimation of the projection uncertainty by the Globe's forecast, which is consistent with what I outlined in this post. It is not about the actual projection per se, although my unadjusted projection is quite close to the Globe's forecast, and would be even closer if I adopted more aggressive discounting for polls 5-14 days old.Election Watcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10276655533153494264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-15716568783497295772015-10-13T09:15:52.981-07:002015-10-13T09:15:52.981-07:00Election Watcher, if the Globe's election fore...Election Watcher, if the Globe's election forecast is the most reasonable, do you expect that your seat projection will move closer to that one over time considering that your projections tend to be more accurate than EKOS', ThreeHundredEight's, etc.Gideonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16577149497169359851noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-41596673226781963162015-10-12T21:53:32.044-07:002015-10-12T21:53:32.044-07:00Yes, for sure, will have to wait and see. And Jean...Yes, for sure, will have to wait and see. And Jean Charest would be a welcome change.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-43265117714354534982015-10-12T21:15:15.148-07:002015-10-12T21:15:15.148-07:00Yes, I just saw that CTV report. Very interesting!...Yes, I just saw that CTV report. Very interesting! Keep in mind:<br />- We haven't gotten many public polling results from this weekend, so the median point of the projection weight is still stuck at October 7. If things have moved over the weekend, the projection should move quickly over the next few days as new numbers come out.<br />- In 2011, the Tories apparently knew that they were in majority territory, but told journalists that they weren't. Back then, they didn't want to scare people. This time, perhaps they're saying that the Liberals are winning anyway to discourage NDP supporters from strategically shifting their support. We won't know if they're again playing the media until Election Night...<br /><br />Word is that even in the unlikely event that he wins a majority, Harper is gone in 2 years. And there are rumours that Jean Charest is mulling a leadership run...Election Watcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10276655533153494264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-64506468460176804562015-10-12T21:02:03.362-07:002015-10-12T21:02:03.362-07:00Thank you! I loved this post over the previous as ...Thank you! I loved this post over the previous as this was incredibly more informative because when you explained the numbers this time, you actually gave room for your numbers to be on the downside too for the conservatives which I thought you were not doing because a casual observer would look at your blog and say that you seem to be projecting the conservatives way too highly.<br /><br />While you do want to be on the safe side based on recentness, as you can see in the following report, I thought you were really discounting the effect of the 10 year fatigue setting in among voters.<br /><br />http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/campaign-shifts-as-harper-looks-to-protect-seats-in-ontario-1.2605931<br /><br />The explanation Robert Fife is giving is that its because the NDP vote is collapsing, the switch is going to the liberals. From a lot of people I speak with, they all want to end a harper majority at all costs and they are willing to go anywhere else and a lot of them voted for Harper the last time because they felt he hadnt gone overboard the first 5 years but the last 4 years, they felt he was acting very much from the right that they want to end it and these are older folks not the young. Its extremely unfair when leaders stay beyond 2-3 terms, it doesnt give anyone else a chance moreover, no chance for fresh ideas. When I heard Michelle Rempel say that she didnt even know what Old Stock Canadian meant on Everything is Political, I knew there was a problem because many in the younger cohort dont see people as old stock, existing stock or "whatever" stock and Harper and Kenney staying allows for staleness to set in. Then again, lets see but I personally felt he should've given someone else a chance. I really think we need something like the American system where we have to restrict a PM to a max of 3 terms, even though in their case, its 2 terms. It will at least make the focus during their 2-3 terms to govern rather than be on permanent campaign mode. And our system very much needs renewal as first past the post is deeply flawed as once in power, the majority never has to work with the a minority and leads to deeply flawed legislation. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-16779911884035057092015-10-12T20:52:25.360-07:002015-10-12T20:52:25.360-07:00Actually, IVR = robocall. Maybe left-of-centre vot...Actually, IVR = robocall. Maybe left-of-centre voters hang up when they get a robocall because they think it's a repeat of the 2011 fiasco...<br /><br />Only Nanos does fully live interviews (EKOS is about 2/3 IVR, 1/3 live). Tories are not doing well in Nanos polls...Election Watcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10276655533153494264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-29765353631747546202015-10-12T20:36:22.981-07:002015-10-12T20:36:22.981-07:00Bryan Beguet had an interesting article (in French...Bryan Beguet had an interesting article (in French) on his website about the Quebec figures in recent polls. He noted that Conservative numbers were higher in phone calls and lower in online or IVR surveys. The Bloc was the opposite. I suppose that makes common sense -- the typical conservative voter is more apt not to be spending time on computers talking to an anonymous pollster, but more likely to respond to a real human voice on a telephone. I'm sure sociologists would have a field day working on why and what that means. For pollsters, I suppose it suggests that a mix of approaches is more likely to get a (more)accurate response.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-92006741071923126272015-10-12T20:09:54.543-07:002015-10-12T20:09:54.543-07:00I'm glad you liked it! This post is a bit more...I'm glad you liked it! This post is a bit more theoretical and mathy than the other one, so I figured it'd be less popular. It's good to know that it does have an audience.<br /><br />I believe that all pollsters use Census demographics unless otherwise indicated. However, pollsters can still play with lots of things. For phone polls (both IVR and live), one huge issue is cell-phone vs. landline users, as Frank Graves pointed out.<br /><br />We'll probably see likely voter models being trotted out by some pollsters to go along their final polls. It'll be interesting to see whether they roughly match my turnout adjustment.Election Watcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10276655533153494264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-53748080309703004702015-10-12T19:24:29.295-07:002015-10-12T19:24:29.295-07:00Thank you for this. It is wonderfully illuminatin...Thank you for this. It is wonderfully illuminating to have someone objective walk me through all this. <br />You've mentioned voter turnout as a factor. Is there any way one can detect whether any given pollster is modeling his or her poll based on StatsCan age demographics or on Elections Canada voter turnout age group estimates? My sense is that most don't adjust away from the StatsCan to the actual voter turnout history we have and that leads to certain parties being reported higher and others lower than they are likely to achieve on election day. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com