tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post6131126808854451806..comments2023-06-03T03:51:36.883-07:00Comments on Canadian Election Watch: Change in Vote Share AdjustmentElection Watcherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10276655533153494264noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-10491398279916023942011-04-27T20:00:21.740-07:002011-04-27T20:00:21.740-07:00Jeremy: Again, the Tories were surging in the last...Jeremy: Again, the Tories were surging in the last couple of days, which is very different from what we have now. It could be that the NDP surge will continue. But it could also be that the NDP is peaking too early, and will lose a few percent at the end. We just don't know.<br /><br />What we do know is that the NDP electorate is overwhelming young, and that young voters turn out less. I think that's what my adjustment captures, and I believe that after my adjustment, there is roughly equal risk on both sides.Election Watcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10276655533153494264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-38485216166990432282011-04-27T14:35:25.449-07:002011-04-27T14:35:25.449-07:00Remember how the 2008 estimates undervalued the To...Remember how the 2008 estimates undervalued the Tory vote, because they were surging?<br /><br />This time it's the NDP that's surging, and your model is going to miss that in just the same way.<br /><br />NDP commitment will be softer because it's new... but people LIKE to vote for an underdog that's suddenly a winner. Penalizing the NDP at this point seems just wrong. Where before NDP voters might have walked into the poll and said "Hm, maybe I should vote for the Grit or the Bloc again to block theJeremyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02612718425622756092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-35169770238387882812011-04-27T14:33:54.497-07:002011-04-27T14:33:54.497-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Jeremyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02612718425622756092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-65004810569086670772011-04-27T05:06:56.021-07:002011-04-27T05:06:56.021-07:00Yeah, all this is pretty much guesswork. Many peop...Yeah, all this is pretty much guesswork. Many people probably think they're committed until they change their mind. I originally gave bumps to both the Grits and Tories because the Liberals got it in 2004 and 2006, while the Conservatives got it last time. But the dynamics this time are really really bad for the Liberals.Election Watcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10276655533153494264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-33974616598014637732011-04-27T05:00:27.223-07:002011-04-27T05:00:27.223-07:00I was thinking about something regarding voters co...I was thinking about something regarding voters commitment. I'm sure we can find a poll from Ekos or AR that is 3 weeks old where 75-80% of Bloc supporters were sure to vote for the Bloc. Yet, 3 weeks later, the Bloc has lost like 35% if its support in Quebec (dropping from 35-38 to 25-28)... Something is not consistent there, don't you think? Especially since we still have around 80% of commitment for the remaining voters.Bryan Breguethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10546699915684107021noreply@blogger.com