tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post555964803662941631..comments2022-03-25T04:09:36.396-07:00Comments on Canadian Election Watch: Québec 2014: CAQ Vote Efficiency Up From 2012Election Watcherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10276655533153494264noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-40968031750225516952014-05-17T19:37:50.308-07:002014-05-17T19:37:50.308-07:00Hi Thierry,
Good job indeed on coming closer the ...Hi Thierry,<br /><br />Good job indeed on coming closer the CAQ's good seat count, though I guess even your model didn't quite go all the way to 22. That might actually be a good thing, since, as I explained in this post, there are reasons to believe that a new party like the CAQ would have strategic issues in its first election (2012): electors don't exactly know the ridings where the party is strong, and the party can't pinpoint where its supporters are. So it's normal that the CAQ's 2014 seat count is higher than what its 2012 results would suggest.<br /><br />It'd be fun if someone examined whether, historically, a new party's seat count underperforms its vote percentage in its first election. Might even be a publishable political science paper if it hasn't been done before! (I'm not a political scientist.)<br /><br />I'm not a computer whiz myself, but making a website with Blogger was quite painless, especially if you don't do the graphics I have in the sidebar. I would encourage you to make your own blog, so that you can say a little more about your methodology and get your own followers! And if you do so, let me know - I'd be glad to add a link to your blog.Election Watcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10276655533153494264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-79160909106147459802014-04-17T05:43:21.069-07:002014-04-17T05:43:21.069-07:00Actually, the projections for my simulator, using ...Actually, the projections for my simulator, using the poll average from 308, gave me:<br /><br />67 PLQ<br />39 PQ<br />16 CAQ<br />3 QS<br /><br />However, I had cheated and removed the trend from Marois's riding, allowing her to win in Charlevoix-Côte-de-Beaupré. If I hadn't done that and let my projector do its job, I would have predicted her losing to the PLQ, giving:<br /><br />68 PLQ<br />38 PQ<br />16 CAQ<br />3 QS<br /><br />Those results are pretty close to the actual results, only 9 seats would need to switch to a different party. I had underestimated the CAQ, but that was mostly due to the PQ being overestimated by 1,5%, and in that zone, it was the difference maker in a few ridings, especially against the CAQ. In total, I would have been wrong in 16 ridings and right in 109, for an efficiency of 87,2%.<br /><br />Using the results of the election, I get:<br /><br />73 PLQ<br />31 PQ<br />18 CAQ<br />3 QS<br /><br />On the seat total, only 4 seats would need to switch over to the CAQ to have the actual results (3 from the PLQ and 1 from the PQ). I would have correctly predicted 111 ridings and been wrong in 14, for an efficiency of 88,8%. I find this results pretty good for my simulator's first run, especially since it's something I did in my spare time for fun. However, I find that the 88,8% with the actual results is too close to the 87,2% of the polls.<br /><br />By making a slight modification to how my riding algorithms are calculated, using the poll average, I get:<br /><br />70 PLQ<br />38 PQ<br />14 CAQ<br />3 QS<br /><br />The PLQ and QS's seat numbers are correctly projected, but the PQ and the CAQ are still quite off with 8 seats needing to switch between them. I would have correctly predicted the outcome of 111 seats out of 125, for an efficiency of 88,8%, the same as my previous version's actual results efficiency.<br /><br />Using the actual vote results however, I get:<br /><br />72 PLQ<br />34 PQ<br />16 CAQ<br />3 QS<br /><br />Only QS is correctly projected, but overall, only 6 seats need to switch to the CAQ (2 from PLQ and 4 from the PQ), which would be 2 more than my previous version. Riding per riding on the other hand, it becomes more accurate, with only 10 mistakes out of 125, so 115 correct projections, for an efficiency of 92%.<br /><br />I don't have a website where I post my predictions (yet, maybe I could start one, but I don't know anything about websites...), but I did place my predictions on 308 and tooclosetocall before the election. I thought it was interesting to point out that my projector had given much more seat to the CAQ from the PQ than a uniform swing model, and many more than the two models from the aforementioned sites.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12736483822386714912noreply@blogger.com