tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post2534657681066558924..comments2023-06-03T03:51:36.883-07:00Comments on Canadian Election Watch: Léger: Bloc by 13 in Chambly--BorduasElection Watcherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10276655533153494264noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-21568424761956141502011-04-25T02:29:22.166-07:002011-04-25T02:29:22.166-07:00Skoblin: That's an interesting observation. Th...Skoblin: That's an interesting observation. The model currently has the Liberals down 4.4 points from 2008, and the Conservatives down 2.1 points, so it assumes the Grits to be hit more in every riding. Obviously, this could be a poor assumption.<br /><br />If you look at the Quebec City area riding polls, it's the Liberals that are hit by the NDP rise. My guess is that in a given riding, the NDP takes relatively more from whichever party does not have a chance.<br /><br />If this is true, then the NDP would make fewer direct gains against their main opponents than expected, which would dampen their seat count.Election Watcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10276655533153494264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-38230377432071436132011-04-25T00:15:48.414-07:002011-04-25T00:15:48.414-07:00Re: Kelly
The independent candidate is Jean-Franc...Re: Kelly<br /><br />The independent candidate is Jean-Francois Mercier, a Quebec satirist known as "le gros cave".Skoblinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05405822777148403728noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-90035246875847860522011-04-25T00:05:19.373-07:002011-04-25T00:05:19.373-07:00Curious about the identity of the one Independent ...Curious about the identity of the one Independent projected to win. I would have assumed Mr. Arthur but your polling seems to suggest not...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-51300957697127118322011-04-24T23:59:35.329-07:002011-04-24T23:59:35.329-07:00EW,
I was half-inclined to the idea that of the t...EW,<br /><br />I was half-inclined to the idea that of the two opposing federalist parties - Conservatives and Liberals - the Liberals would be suffering the most from the apparent rise in NDP support in Quebec. Instead, in both the Brome-Missisquoi and Chambly-Borduas riding polls, it looks like the Conservatives have been hardest hit. Is this what your model has anticipated - or is this unexpected?Skoblinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05405822777148403728noreply@blogger.com