tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post1014574946387520612..comments2023-06-03T03:51:36.883-07:00Comments on Canadian Election Watch: Understanding Projections I: Uniform vs. Proportional SwingElection Watcherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10276655533153494264noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-29569789152970891432015-10-13T11:26:44.675-07:002015-10-13T11:26:44.675-07:00On 308.com's CBC anaylsis, in addition to the ...On 308.com's CBC anaylsis, in addition to the debateable choice (appears biased) poll weighting that commentor Jeremy Akerman mentioned an another of your blog posts, I also note the following:<br /><br />There is a "simplistically" labelled, low, middle, avg, high distribution for the seat projection. The conservatives "likely" bubble has always included the low, middle, and avg points, with the "high" projected as an extreme outlier.<br /><br />The NDP and Liberals, (its shifted over time), have their "low" points projected as extreme outliers, but their highs within the shaded "likely" outcome window. By what justification does he skew these likely seat projections to push the cons high to an outlier, but the left leaning parties only have their lows as extreme outliers....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-80786049005612803582015-10-11T08:50:43.943-07:002015-10-11T08:50:43.943-07:00No problem, glad you found this informative! As fo...No problem, glad you found this informative! As for polls, I don't have anything better than the stuff you hear others say: random variation, methodology (IVR, online, live), sampling procedure, time of calls, etc.Election Watcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10276655533153494264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-35356789715613372152015-10-11T06:22:55.840-07:002015-10-11T06:22:55.840-07:00Many thanks for this. Much appreciated. I look for...Many thanks for this. Much appreciated. I look forward to the next one. May we also have an explanation as to why some polls differ so much from others? Best wishes. JAAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12670367817227600400noreply@blogger.com